Asian shares blipped higher on Monday after Beijing surprised markets by trimming a key interest rate for the first time since 2015, stirring speculation that more stimulus was on the way for the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s central bank cut rates on seven-day reverse repurchase agreements by five basis points to 2.50%, a move that nudged the yuan higher while lowering Chinese bond yields.
The news helped Shanghai blue chips recoup early losses to rise 0.3% .CSI300, though the initial reaction was cautious overall. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS also moved 0.3% higher.
Japan’s Nikkei .N225 added 0.38%, and was just short of its recent 13-month top. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 were all but flat, as were EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1.
Beijing’s policy move added to hopes it might also be more serious about making progress in trade talks with the United States.
On Saturday, Chinese state media said the two sides had “constructive talks” on trade in a high-level phone call that included Vice Premier Liu He, U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.
“Markets remain at risk of further short-term volatility given issues around trade, Iran & the Middle East, impeachment noise and weak global economic data,” said Shane Oliver head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital.
“But valuations are okay – particularly against low bond yields – global growth indicators are expected to improve through next year and monetary and fiscal policy are becoming more supportive.”
WAITING ON THE FED
In currency markets, the dollar was little changed against its main peers on Monday and well within recent tight trading ranges. Indeed, volatility in the market has been the lowest in decades recently and shows no sign of shifting.
The dollar edged up on the safe-haven yen to 108.81 JPY=, after bouncing on Friday. Chart support lies at 108.23 with stiff resistance at 109.48.
The euro idled at $1.1058 EUR= having found support at $1.0987 last week. Investors are awaiting the first major speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde due on Friday for clues on future policy.
Sterling nudged up to $1.2923 GBP=D3 as more polls showed the Tories well ahead in the election race.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was a shade softer at 97.944 .DXY.
The dollar and bonds are likely to be sensitive to minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting, set to be released on Wednesday.
“The minutes are likely to reiterate that the U.S. economy is ‘solid’ and that current monetary policy settings are ‘appropriate’, which would support the dollar,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
However, he noted the soft report on October U.S. retail sales released on Friday suggested previously strong consumption was showing some cracks.
“Any further weakness in consumption could warrant a material reassessment of the outlook by the FOMC. Under our baseline, the FOMC would most likely start cutting interest rates again in 2020,” said Capurso.
Spot gold eased to $1,465.67 per ounce XAU= as it tracks every passing twitch in risk appetite.
Oil prices were supported after Brent touched a seven-week high on Friday. [O/R]
Brent crude LCOc1 futures firmed 2 cents to $63.32, while U.S. crude CLc1 added 10 cents to $57.82 a barrel.